Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 34.829804 37.666194 40.759386 44.408303 48.628477 53.397829 59.256676
2025-05-04 31.045380 34.893730 39.378574 45.084010 52.291783 61.306972 73.809180
2025-05-11 28.294746 32.576199 37.781638 44.746825 54.112577 66.757800 86.122780
2025-05-18 26.182665 30.674958 36.309878 44.145433 55.215821 71.146443 97.800729
2025-05-25 24.403430 28.972316 34.842663 43.257350 55.635176 74.439060 108.518544
2025-06-01 22.924312 27.510655 33.520481 42.356555 55.811797 77.261726 119.169330
2025-06-08 21.561622 26.092363 32.121400 41.166530 55.333175 78.848988 127.939117
2025-06-15 21.126553 25.873833 32.333137 42.316169 58.629914 87.477747 154.716548
2025-06-22 20.337900 25.112588 31.709551 42.120290 59.661034 92.181401 174.987362
2025-06-29 19.471827 24.190761 30.786343 41.361813 59.608408 94.742892 191.165436
2025-07-06 18.557870 23.154816 29.632511 40.137604 58.577244 95.093537 201.308667
2025-07-13 18.402073 23.182089 30.042188 41.458609 62.313788 106.486295 255.742250
2025-07-20 18.123207 23.038604 30.216868 42.465417 65.747439 118.644913 331.603059
2025-07-27 17.760365 22.754425 30.158682 43.075215 68.527501 130.344456 431.036117
2025-08-03 17.220344 22.178968 29.606404 42.761534 69.347267 137.137433 522.504667
2025-08-10 16.669374 21.561431 28.950745 42.203252 69.559027 142.311103 622.881660
2025-08-17 16.101864 20.895417 28.182437 41.378228 69.071137 145.246524 720.000784
2025-08-24 15.569116 20.262115 27.436667 40.540586 68.451849 147.641264 830.874940
2025-08-31 15.014332 19.576373 26.576276 39.432732 67.085058 147.179738 908.826051
2025-09-07 14.919399 19.590941 26.860172 40.503013 70.994985 167.099572 1652.559776
2025-09-14 14.592884 19.233622 26.508608 40.320750 71.843686 176.102852 2523.540779
2025-09-21 14.188857 18.741974 25.910768 39.614630 71.284761 179.182777 3435.135347
2025-09-28 13.726385 18.145926 25.115789 38.473684 69.491041 176.374941 3851.318280